Employee Attrition Analytics: The Who, When & Why Of Employee Turnover

People analytics is a rapidly evolving field, but one of its main goals is to understand the characteristics workers have that drive key business outcomes like employee attrition or productivity. One such characteristic is the employee experience. By using predictive analytics, organizations can identify which aspects of the employee experience most influence these outcomes, and then take targeted actions to improve them.

Based on research from Perceptyx's Center for Workforce Transformation, this article explores how organizations can leverage employee attrition analytics to understand and predict turnover patterns, ultimately designing more effective retention strategies.

What Is Employee Attrition Analytics and Why Does It Matter Now?

Employee attrition analytics specifically focuses on identifying why employees voluntarily leave, what might have prevented their departure, and how organizations can use data to predict attrition risk. Most importantly, this type of employee predictive analytics helps organizations understand and design interventions that will be most effective in reducing unwanted attrition.

Over the past few years, this analytic practice has become indispensable. Global labor markets have shifted dramatically, and our own research reveals the extent of this movement: 59% of workers are currently job seeking, according to our ongoing Perceptyx Workplace Panel. This aligns with broader market trends, where the monthly quit rate annualizes to 25.2%, reflecting the unprecedented level of workforce mobility we're seeing today. As organizations address ongoing challenges of hybrid work models and evolving employee expectations, employee listening strategies and attrition analytics remain critical for retaining top talent.

How Can Organizations Find the Right Balance Between Too Much and Too Little Attrition?

It's important to recognize that there are actually two types of attrition problems: too little and too much.

When considering attrition, many leaders tend to focus on high turnover. Recruiting, hiring, onboarding, and training new employees costs businesses billions annually. Companies also suffer productivity losses and lost profits when there's continuous workforce churn. Top talent, in particular, can be very difficult and expensive to replace. Replacing an individual employee typically costs one-half to 2x the worker's annual salary.

But too little attrition can also be problematic. The right amount of attrition, with the right people turning over at the right time, is desirable. Not every organization or job suits every person; when an employee who isn't the right fit or a low performer leaves, there's an opportunity to fill the role with a high performer who better fits the position. Even when a good employee "graduates" to a customer or a competitor, if they become a great ambassador for the company, it can be a positive loss.

The goal with employee attrition and retention is striking the right balance of holding on to top talent while accepting that some level of attrition is healthy. Employee attrition analytics enables organizations to find that balance.

What Are the Key Questions Organizations Need to Answer About Employee Attrition?

The first step to building an employee retention model is determining who is leaving the organization, when they are leaving, and why they are leaving.

To predict future patterns, we first look to the past. Organizations can find answers by using engagement survey data collected six months to one year in the past and creating a post-hoc demographic of employees who left voluntarily. Analyzing this demographic reveals information about turnover in various job roles, tenure levels, business units, and locations, revealing pockets of high turnover that tell us who is leaving and when.

An employee listening perspective answers the question of why. By examining what departing employees told us about the workplace, work relationships, and their sense of organizational connection in the months before leaving, we can identify areas that need improvement. Exit surveys provide another valuable data source, offering richer information when compared with engagement survey responses to reveal how perceptions changed over time.

How Do You Build an Employee Retention Model That Works?

Because each organization has its own ideal balance between employee attrition and retention, an effective retention model must be unique to the organization and focus on its biggest challenges. Different employees have different reasons for leaving, requiring creative and flexible approaches to retain hard-to-replace talent or extend tenure in transitional positions.

Some attrition is predictable even without analyzing survey data. If leaders know that 20% of their managers will reach retirement age in five years, the organization can start identifying management candidates and developing them through the training pipeline. Incentives to keep older employees past retirement age might also be considered.

However, analyzing engagement and exit survey data together reveals less obvious red flags. Demographic data analysis alone can highlight attrition hotspots linked to specific job types, locations, and tenure levels; survey data analysis reveals why turnover is higher in those hotspots. This information can be loaded into the system to inform the model and establish internal employee turnover benchmarks.

What Does Perceptyx Data Show About Predicting Attrition?

The Perceptyx research database contains a subset of more than 300,000 employees with both employee engagement survey results and attrition data, providing a massive, globally diverse, and statistically relevant dataset for attrition research.

Our analysis of employee experience survey responses on four standard engagement items (intent to stay, referral behavior, intrinsic motivation, and pride in company) shows dramatic differences in attrition rates. Employees who were most engaged separated at a rate of 2.4% in the six months following the survey, less than one-third of the 8.4% leaving among those employees unfavorable across the board.

Our Center for Workplace Transformation’s Workforce Panel also shows a strong correlation between manager quality and attrition. Among employees who rated their manager as "poor" or "fair," 21.5% intend to leave the organization, which is more than 5x the 4.3% planned attrition for employees rating the relationship as "excellent." Employees with “fair” or “poor” managers account for more than one-third of all people who plan to leave in the next 12 months. This difference represents a cost of more than $300B to the U.S. economy each year.

How Can Organizations Address Turnover Through Targeted Interventions?

Sometimes the question for organizations isn't "who is turning over?" but "when are they turning over?" For example, certain roles may see employees heading for the doors before the 90-day mark. This may indicate mismatched job expectations during recruiting or onboarding. Further analysis may show that if they can keep employees through the 90-day mark, these employees stay in their role for about two years.

Interventions might include ensuring interviewers accurately explain jobs when hiring or implementing onboarding changes to improve early experiences. Organizations can compare tenure lengths between employees experiencing new versus previous onboarding processes to assess effectiveness. Key questions include: Has it slowed churn rates? Are employees staying longer? This objective assessment helps determine if additional onboarding investment provides savings versus attrition costs.

What Role Does Manager Effectiveness Play in Limiting Attrition?

As our data reveals, employee/manager relationship quality is a significant attrition predictor. When engagement and exit surveys show manager relationships as attrition risks, organizations can (and should) intervene with targeted behavioral interventions, such as Grow from Perceptyx, and follow up with further analytics to ensure those interventions are having the desired effect.

Survey data reveals whether managers perform tasks important for keeping employees engaged: setting clear performance expectations, providing useful feedback, and recognizing employee accomplishments. Organizations must consider how manager onboarding and continuing education can help managers develop retention skills.

Performance data can be incorporated into retention models as well. In some roles, employees either get promoted within a certain timeframe or reach a dead end and likely leave. Using predictive analytics, managers can be alerted when, for example, half their team approaches the 18-month mark, a moment analytics has determined their employees typically move up or out. Proactive one-on-one meetings to discuss career goals may help employees either advance or transition gracefully, preventing simultaneous attrition.

How Do Flexible Work Arrangements Impact Employee Retention?

Focusing on attrition drivers for top talent is particularly important. These positions often allow more intervention latitude, as employees typically have unique experience, high-value skills, or are otherwise hard to replace. If organizations notice attrition patterns where employees leave for caregiving responsibilities, interventions may include flexible schedules, remote work options, or other work arrangement changes to allow work-life balance.

Offering flexible working arrangements, whether in terms of location or hours, continues to be one of the most effective strategies for retaining and attracting top talent. Perceptyx research shows that nearly half of remote employees would consider leaving their jobs if required to return to the office full-time, and 5 in 10 say they would accept a 5% pay cut to remain remote. With 3 in 10 employees currently in hybrid or remote roles, flexibility has become a key differentiator for organizations seeking to compete for skilled talent in today’s labor market.

What Have We Learned About Employee Attrition in Recent Years?

From the Great Resignation to fears about worker shortages to today's tight labor market, the past few years have been marked by unprecedented volatility for workers and employers alike. While compensation and benefits remain important, a clearer picture has emerged of what truly drives employee retention in this new landscape.

Recent Perceptyx benchmark data reveals that growth and development have become a defining factor in whether employees stay or go. Among the strongest drivers of intent to stay, four of the five relate directly to career growth. Employees who believe they can achieve their career goals are 3x as likely to remain with their organization, while those who see meaningful development opportunities are 2.2x as likely to stay.

The data tells a compelling story: 71% of employees respond favorably when they see opportunities for growth and development, making it one of the highest-rated retention factors. Similarly, 68% respond positively to achieving career goals and having responsibilities that position them for success.

This isn't just about immediate job satisfaction. Employees are increasingly asking "Can I grow here?" alongside "Am I happy here?" Without clear development pathways and meaningful growth experiences, even engaged employees may walk away. Organizations that fail to invest visibly in employee development risk losing their best people to competitors who do.

How Can Organizations Get Ahead of Employee Attrition?

Recent years have provided ample opportunity for researchers to study larger employee turnover trends. However, every organization has different cultures, goal outcomes, and success drivers.

At Perceptyx, we help companies design listening and action programs addressing their biggest challenges. With custom surveys paired with our People Insights Platform and expertise in survey design, strategy, and communication, we guide organizations in developing strategies to reduce attrition and retain valuable talent regardless of global labor market trends.

Ready to bridge the gap between attrition risks and retention success? Schedule a demo with our team to discover how our People Insights Platform can help you create data-driven retention strategies that truly resonate with your people. For more insights on employee experience and retention strategies, subscribe to our blog.